Saturday 17 October 2015

PIPEHAWK #PIP

Pipehawk
#PIP

Buys - 55,000 at 5.2 and 32,000 at 5.88 (Smudgedan put the price up inbetween buys!)
Average 87,000 at 5.45p
Currently 7.5p mid price
Target 15-20p
Timeframe - within 1 month

Current Mcap - £2.48mill

What do they do?
Pipehawk plc is a british group of four businesses.
Pipehawk - Developing a range of ground probing radar devices. "PipeHawk is currently unique in its ability to offer a wide range of solutions to meet the needs of the UK market, from a single contractor requiring only a site mark out, to a full team of engineers & planners requiring extensive topological surveys with overlay mapping of a city’s complete utilities infrastructure" - from http://www.pipehawk.com/index.php/about_us/ The technology division
QM systems - Probably the flagship section.  http://www.qm-systems.com/ Engineering company designing and building automation services.
Adien - They are the UK leading Utility detection and mapping services company. Mostly again using ground probing radar
SUMO - PIP have 28.4% stake. SUMO is an expanding franchising operation to provide utility mark out services throughout the UK

Past performance
2014 turnover = £5.1mill
2014 P/L = Loss of £523k post tax
2013 turnover = £5.2mill
2013 P/L = Loss of £1.932mill (writing off £2.5mill in development expenditure)

2015 Half year
Turnover = £2.583mill
Half year P/L =  Profit after tax £50k


Investment case
For the first 6 months of 2015, PIP made their maiden profit which is always significant in a small growth business. The second 6 months looks to be even better for a few different reasons.
QM systems - "Healthy" order book. Continued recruitment so less costly externally contracted people. Expanding into new sectors. RNSed deal with Hadley worth £600k to dec with two more phases to come, likely of similar or higher value. The actual factory has expanded
with more in house manufacturing equipement enabling quicker and reaction times and more volume.

Key management brought in. Previously a loarge contract was moved to india, shrinking margins and costing significant staff time.
Adien - Was profitable in first 6 months despite a "key project" being delayed until the second half of the year. Certainly sounds like should have increased profits in second half
Piphawk tech - New product range going well. Next step is setting up a larger scale production. They have appiled for "horizon 2020" european funding for this and we await to know if was successful (this was due to be known in the spring so maybe an update in EOY results)
SUMO - continues to be profitable

So this is a market leading niche company that is rapidly expanding, increasing profit margins, emplying more staff and turning a maiden profit in the first 6 months of the year. The end of year results should show a contined trend and hopefully a bullish outlook for the year to come.
I expect turnover to be in the £5.5-6mill area and profit to be in the £200-300k area

Comms with the company
My initial communication with the Chairman was in late Aug. At that stage he told me they were in a closed period. The usual closed period is 2 months before end of year results. On this logic you would expect the end of year results by the end of oct (exact deduction may be off). Last years EOY results were on 14th Nov. You usually dont rush out poor results now do you. Early results are usually good results.
More recently the chairman has comfirmed that the second half was better than the first half, which was better than last year.  He has of course been tight lipped pre results, not disclosing any price sensitive info.

EDIT 16/11/15
Comms with Mr Watt the Chairman last friday re the EOY results being late. The issue is a new accounting practice whereby the JV SUMO has to have results within 3months up to date for PIP but that is outside of their normal results window so trying to get them sorted asap but accountant off sick and replacement left! Sound be soon. Not late for a bad reason as far as i can see

Summary 
Microcap (2.5mill) market leading niche company, going from loss to profit in a big way. Rapidly expanding with a bright future. Cheap.
Stacks up extremely favourably to most AIM conpanies in the £5-10mill MCap category, most of which dont make any money or infact large losses. 
Aiming for 15-20p on good results and market awareness 

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